A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
